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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use. The primary objectives of Scenario-MIP are to:

  1. Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.
  2. Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.
  3. Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.

ScenarioMIP is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project organised by the World Climate Research Programme, and integrates research across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), mitigation, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities. For more information on the origins of the project, see the ScenarioMIP paper below, that was written under CMIP6. We are now at the beginning of the CMIP7 phase, and in the process of identifying science, policy and service-driven criteria that will guide the choice of new scenarios for earth system models to run. 

Key publications

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, (O’Neill et al., 2016)

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 (Tebaldi et al., 2021)

Scientific Steering Committee

Brian O’NeillJGCRI/PNNLCo-chair
Claudia TebaldiJGCRI/PNNLCo-chair
Detlef van VuurenPBLCo-chair
Govindasamy BalaIndian Institute of ScienceMember
Louise Parsons ChiniUniversity of MarylandMember
Veronika EyringDLRMember
Pierre FriedlingsteinUniversity of ExeterMember
Katja FrielerPIKMember
Tomoko HasegawaRitsumeikan UniversityMember
Reto KnuttiETH-ZürichMember
Elmar KrieglerPIKMember
Chris LennardUniversity of Cape TownMember
Jason LoweUK Met OfficeMember
Shahbaz MehmoodGCISCMember
Swapna PanickalIndian Institute of Technology MadrasMember
Luciana PradoUniversidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroMember
Keywan RiahiIIASAMember
Alex RuaneNASA GISSMember
Ben SandersonCICEROMember
Anna SörenssonUniversity of Buenos AiresMember
Qiang ZhangTsinghua UniversityMember

Advisory Group

Hideo ShiogamaChenyang JinXin QiuKiyoshi Takahashi
Michael PratherAndrew JonesMarco RealeJens Tambke
Asutosh AcharyaAlfred JohnyNadia RehmanKatsumasa Tanaka
Muhammad AdnanAbiy KebedeAnastasia RomanouChristiane Textor
Carla Almeida VivacquaVarisha KhanIndrani RoyWim Thiery
Muhammad AmjadSiir KilkisInke SchauserTokuta Tokohata
Thomas AubryPeter LawrenceCarl-Friedrich SchleussnerAndrew Wiebe
Calum BrownYue LiEnrico ScoccimarroLaura Wilcox
Edward ByersAsad ManmoodSonia SeneviratneJonny Williams
Tim CarterCamilla MathisonTiffany ShawAlexander Winkler
Ziming ChenKelly McCuskerElena ShevliakovaKlaus Wyser
William CollinsMalte MeinshausenJana SillmannSha Yu
Binod DawadiBhogendra MishraManmeet SinghJie Zhang
Bo DongVaishali NaikChris SmithTilo Ziehn
Kris EbiCristiano Prestrelo de OliveiraRobin Smith
Jan FuglestvedtAdeyemi Oludapo OlusolaZhenay Song
Oliver GedenSylvie PareyChristian Steger
Mujtaba HassanHun ParkRanjini Swaminathan
Zeke HausfatherAnna PiraniKaoru Tachiiri
Joseph Rubén Huanay PérezFangli QiaoMuhammed Naveed Tahir


Towards a new set of scenarios for CMIP7 An update from ScenarioMIP’s Reading meeting

In June, the first meeting of the ScenarioMIP project under CMIP7 was held in Reading, UK. This meeting formed the first step in a design process to select a new, limited set of model runs. After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee published a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. You can read the report here.

In this webinar, the ScenarioMIP chairs outlined the process for selecting scenarios and presented the first drafted elements of the proposal coming out of the Reading meeting. Video of the webinar is below.

ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Workshop

This workshop brought together the re-established ScenarioMIP community with the key CMIP Task Teams and relevant MIPs to look at lessons learned from CMIP6/AR6, current scenario development progress, and the key questions and experimental design priorities towards CMIP7/AR7 generation scenarios.

Event report

After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee have written a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. The report has been published online, and can be accessed by following this link.

The ScenarioMIP co-chairs are happy to receive comments and suggestions for the ongoing process. Please submit feedback on the form:

Pre-workshop survey

The ScenarioMIP Co-chairs put together a short survey requesting feedback from the community on scenarios and their selection criteria. Survey results were discussed at the ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Workshop.

The survey has now closed.

CMIP7 Scenarios proposal

Following a series of engagements with the ScenarioMIP SSC, Advisory Board, CMIP Panel, WCRP Join Steering Committee, and the wider community, ScenarioMIP are pleased to release the latest proposal for the CMIP7 scenarios.

The co-chairs would like to invite the wider community to consult on their proposal and provide feedback in advance of the planned submission to GMD in the summer of 2024. The proposal and consultation form can be accessed from the button below.

This consultation has now closed. You can still read the proposal via the button below.

ScenarioMIP FAQs

If you are having trouble viewing the Q&A below, open the forum in a new tab by following this link. Click the arrow icon to the left of each question to view the full response.

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