ScenarioMIP workshop: Pathway to next generation scenarios for CMIP7

Closed workshop for members of MIPs, CMIP Task Teams and Panel.

• About
• Registration
• Programme
• Delegate list
• ScenarioMIP Survey
• Travel information
• Accommodation suggestion
• Financial assistance

About

This workshop will bring together the re-established ScenarioMIP community with the key CMIP Task Teams and relevant MIPs to look at lessons learned from CMIP6/AR6, current scenario development progress, and the key questions and experimental design priorities towards CMIP7/AR7 generation scenarios. There will be a mix of plenary and break out sessions during this three day hybrid format workshop offering both in-person and online participation.

The workshop is being led by the ScenarioMIP Chairs – Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi and Detlef van Vuuren who have developed the content – with support for event organisation from the CMIP International Project Office and kindly hosted by the University of Reading. Any questions regarding the workshop should be sent to

Registration

Registration is closed. Online and in-person registration was open for members of ScenarioMIP, CMIP governing bodies and invited other MIPs and CMIP Task Teams. 

Programme

Attendees have been emailed the detailed programme and online joining instructions.

The workshop takes place over 3 full days. A restaurant in Reading has been booked for a group dinner on the evening of Wednesday 21st June.

Programme -by day

Day 1   Tuesday 20 June

09:00 -10:00 Introduction to and overview of the meeting, including:

• Meeting goals and expected outcomes
• ScenarioMIP process (role of this meeting in longer process)
• Criteria for choosing scenarios
• Results from survey (possibly interwoven with the above)

[Detlef van Vuuren and Brian O’Neill]

Discussion

10:00 – 10:45 CMIP panel perspective  [Helene Hewitt and John Dunne, online]

Discussion

10:45 – 11:15 Break

11:15 -12:30 Important characteristics of the ScenarioMIP experimental design from the perspective of :   (25 min  each, including discussion)

• ESM community [Ben Sanderson, Jason Lowe, Pierre Friedlingstein]
• IAV community [Katja Frieler, online]
• IAM community [Keywan Riahi]

12:30-13:30 Lunch*

13:20 Group photo for in-person participants

13:30 – 14:00 MIP presentations: status and plans relevant to ScenarioMIP  (8 min each)

• LUMIP [Dave Lawrence]
• AerChemMIP [Fiona O’Connor]
• C4MIP [Chris Jones, Pierre Friedlingstein]  

14:00 – 15:00 Additional MIP/Task Team flash talks:

Status and plans relevant to ScenarioMIP  (5 mins each)

• CDRMIP [Naomi Vaughn, online]
• GeoMIP [Daniele Visioni]
• RCMIP [Joeri Rogelj]
• RFMIP [Chris Smith]
• Strategic Ensemble Design Task Team [Ben Sanderson]
• Forcing Task Team [Louise Chini]
• CORDEX [Daniela Jacob, Chris Lennard, José Gutiérrez, online]
• VIACS AB [Alex Ruane, online]

Discussion

15:00 – 15:30 Break

15:30 -17:30 Discussion of needs for ScenarioMIP design and wrap-up.  [Detlef van Vuuren]

Community proposals

• A community proposal for the next generation of the main Earth System Model scenarios: The representative emission pathways (REPs) [Carl-Friedrich Schleussner]
• Modelling centres proposal for emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 [Roland Séférian]
• Adaptive emissions reduction approach – MIP [Thomas Frölicher]
• Volcanic perspective on ScenarioMIP [ Thomas Aubry]
• Case For Warming-Level Driven Large Ensembles [Andy Jones]
• Which warming can we still expect? What do national climate targets tell us about how much global warming to expect [Joeri Rogelj]

Day 2  Wednesday 21 June

9:00-9:30 Welcome and Presentation of BOG structure and timing.  [Brian O’Neill]

Three BOGs structured around groups of questions  (a number of questions will be provided as starting points)

9:30 – 10:15 Parallel breakout groups (BOGs),one per group of questions

• BOG 1 Questions driven by ScenarioMIP science [Pierre Friedlingstein chairing]
• BOG 2 Questions driven by ScenarioMIP policy relevance [Elmar Kriegler chairing]
• BOG 3 Questions driven by ScenarioMIP service role [Jason Lowe chairing]

10:15 – 10:45 Break

10:45 -11:15 Breakout groups  continued

11:15 – 12:00 Report back (15 minutes per BOG 8+7)

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch*

13:00 – 14:00 University of Reading open event, “Towards the next set of scenarios for CMIP7” * [Claudia Tebaldi, Brian O’Neill and Detlef van Vuuren]

Staff and students of relevant departments will be joining the workshop for this session in person and online.  Please note the joining instructions are different to those of the workshop plenary.  Workshop online participants will need to leave this and enter the lobby of the plenary at 13:55

14:00 – 15:00 Emulation [Claudia Tebaldi and Sonia Seneviratne, online]

15:00 – 15:20 Break

15:20 – 16:35 Three parallel BOGs   (same themes, same chairs, participants can switch if desired)

16:35 – 17:30 Report back and wrap-up  [Claudia Tebaldi]

19:30 Group meal for in-person attendees

Day 3 Thursday 22 June

9:00 – 9:30 Welcome and introduction to day 3 [Brian O’Neill, Detlef van Vuuren and Claudia Tebaldi]

9:30 – 10:15 Group discussion, Plenary .

10:15 – 10:45 Break

10:45 -11:15 Group discussion, Plenary, continued -if we go to breakout, this will be updated and delegates emailed

11:15 – 12:00 Report back in plenary [SSC members TBD]

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch*

12:50 online participants need to join lobby so that they can take part in the online group photo at 12:55

13:00 – 15:00 Implications for design of ScenarioMIP and related MIPs [Brian O’Neill and Detlef van Vuuren]

15:00 – 15:30 Next steps

15:30 Meeting adjourns

15:30 – 16:00 Refreshments and networking for in-person participants

Delegate list

The Delegate list is available here.

https://airtable.com/shrdkj4aC6cNawAkl

ScenarioMIP Survey

The ScenarioMIP Co-chairs have put together a short survey requesting feedback from the community on scenarios and their selection criteria. Survey results may be discussed at the meeting. Any responses received after Wednesday 15th June may not be considered at the workshop, but will be reviewed after.

You can find the survey on the ScenarioMIP webpage (access this by following this link), or you can view the survey in a new tab by following this link.

Travel information

The Whiteknights campus is approximately two miles and around 40 minutes on foot from Reading Station. Please allow a further 10 minutes to reach the Brian Hoskins Building.  We advise that you download the campus map:

• Whiteknights campus (PDF – 2.69MB)

Trains to Reading run frequently.  Plan your train journey using the National Rail website.

The 21 and 21a buses (to Shinfield Road) and the 17 and 19 buses (to Earley Gate) run from Reading train station in the town centre to the Whiteknights campus at regular intervals, 24 hours a day. A single bus journey will cost you £2.00 (a day ticket is £4.00. You purchase your ticket on the bus and will need either the exact change or a contactless bank card).

If you choose to take a taxi or bus, the bus stops and taxi rank can be found outside the station. A taxi will cost you approximately £8.

Department of Meteorology,
Brian Hoskins Building,
University of Reading,
Whiteknights campus

Earley Gate entrance: RG6 7BE
Brian Hoskins Meteorology Building: RG6 6ET

Further travel details can be found at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/about/visit-us

By plane

Reading is well connected to both London Heathrow and London Gatwick airports.

London Heathrow

RailAir offers a direct coach service that runs between Heathrow Airport and Reading town centre. Coaches offer free Wi-Fi and at-seat USB charging, and operate frequently: up to every 20 minutes on weekdays, and every 30 minutes at weekends.

For more information, please visit the RailAir website.

It is also possible to travel by rail by either taking a train into Paddington and then a train out to Reading 40-60 minutes depending on transfer time (use National Rail Website), or taking the new Elizabeth line, changing at Hayes & Harlington Station (1hr)

London Gatwick

A direct train service runs between Gatwick airport and Reading station. Trains run once an hour, during the day. and take about 75 minutes. For more information please visit the National Rail website.

Accommodation suggestions

Here are a few accommodation suggestions. If you have any recommendations, let us know and we will add them.

We will be going out for a group dinner on the Wednesday evening in Reading town centre so you might prefer to stay near to Reading town centre/station. It is easy to get from the station to the campus via bus (and a short walk across campus),see the travel section for details.

Near Reading station:

Ibis: https://all.accor.com/hotel/5431/index.en.shtml

Novotel: https://all.accor.com/hotel/5432/index.en.shtml

Premier Inn: https://www.premierinn.com/gb/en/hotels/england/berkshire/reading/reading-central.html

Near venue:

Elmhurst hotel: https://www.elmhursthotel.co.uk/

Midway:

Sure Hotel, Great Western, 25minutes on foot to both station and venue: http://www.surehotelreading.co.uk/

Financial assistance

A limited amount of financial support for travel and accommodation may be available to support delegates who are attending as activity representatives and are unable to access funding from their institutions to cover attendance costs. Please note that we are unable to provide per diem financial support. Contact the CMIP IPO to request support: