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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use. The primary objectives of Scenario-MIP are to:
- Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.
- Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.
- Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.
ScenarioMIP is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project organised by the World Climate Research Programme, and integrates research across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), mitigation, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities. For more information on the origins of the project, see the ScenarioMIP paper below, that was written under CMIP6. We are now at the beginning of the CMIP7 phase, and in the process of identifying science, policy and service-driven criteria that will guide the choice of new scenarios for earth system models to run.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, (O’Neill et al., 2016)
Scientific Steering Committee
|Detlef van Vuuren
|Indian Institute of Science
|Louise Parsons Chini
|University of Maryland
|University of Exeter
|University of Cape Town
|UK Met Office
|Indian Institute of Technology Madras
|Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
|University of Buenos Aires
|Carla Almeida Vivacqua
|Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira
|Adeyemi Oludapo Olusola
|Muhammed Naveed Tahir
|Joseph Rubén Huanay Pérez
In June, the first meeting of the ScenarioMIP project under CMIP7 was held in Reading, UK. This meeting formed the first step in a design process to select a new, limited set of model runs. After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee published a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. You can read the report here.
In this webinar, the ScenarioMIP chairs outlined the process for selecting scenarios and presented the first drafted elements of the proposal coming out of the Reading meeting. Video of the webinar is below.
This workshop will bring together the re-established ScenarioMIP community with the key CMIP Task Teams and relevant MIPs to look at lessons learned from CMIP6/AR6, current scenario development progress, and the key questions and experimental design priorities towards CMIP7/AR7 generation scenarios.
After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee have written a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. The report has been published online, and can be accessed by following this link.
The ScenarioMIP co-chairs are happy to receive comments and suggestions for the ongoing process. Please submit feedback on the form: bit.ly/ScenarioMIP-report-feedback-2023.
The ScenarioMIP Co-chairs have put together a short survey requesting feedback from the community on scenarios and their selection criteria. Survey results may be discussed at the ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Workshop. Any responses received after Wednesday 14th June may not be considered at the workshop, but will be reviewed after.
You can view the survey in a new tab here.
If you are having trouble viewing the Q&A below, open the forum in a new tab by following this link. Click the arrow icon to the left of each question to view the full response.