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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use. The primary objectives of Scenario-MIP are to:

  1. Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.
  2. Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.
  3. Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.

ScenarioMIP is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project organised by the World Climate Research Programme, and integrates research across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), mitigation, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities. For more information on the origins of the project, see the ScenarioMIP paper below, that was written under CMIP6. We are now at the beginning of the CMIP7 phase, and in the process of identifying science, policy and service-driven criteria that will guide the choice of new scenarios for earth system models to run. 

Key publications

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, (O’Neill et al., 2016)

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 (Tebaldi et al., 2021)

Scientific Steering Committee

Brian O’NeillJGCRI/PNNLCo-chair
Claudia TebaldiJGCRI/PNNLCo-chair
Detlef van VuurenPBLCo-chair
Govindasamy BalaIndian Institute of ScienceMember
Louise Parsons ChiniUniversity of MarylandMember
Veronika EyringDLRMember
Pierre FriedlingsteinUniversity of ExeterMember
Katja FrielerPIKMember
Tomoko HasegawaRitsumeikan UniversityMember
Reto KnuttiETH-ZürichMember
Elmar KrieglerPIKMember
Chris LennardUniversity of Cape TownMember
Jason LoweUK Met OfficeMember
Shahbaz MehmoodGCISCMember
Swapna PanickalIndian Institute of Technology MadrasMember
Luciana PradoUniversidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroMember
Keywan RiahiIIASAMember
Alex RuaneNASA GISSMember
Ben SandersonCICEROMember
Anna SörenssonUniversity of Buenos AiresMember
Qiang ZhangTsinghua UniversityMember

Advisory Group

Hideo ShiogamaChenyang JinXin QiuJens Tambke
Michael PratherAndrew JonesMarco RealeKatsumasa Tanaka
Asutosh AcharyaAlfred JohnyNadia RehmanChristiane Textor
Muhammad AdnanAbiy KebedeAnastasia RomanouWim Thiery
Carla Almeida VivacquaVarisha KhanIndrani RoyTokuta Tokohata
Muhammad AmjadSiir KilkisInke SchauserAndrew Wiebe
Thomas AubryPeter LawrenceCarl-Friedrich SchleussnerLaura Wilcox
Calum BrownYue LiEnrico ScoccimarroJonny Williams
Edward ByersAsad ManmoodSonia SeneviratneAlexander Winkler
Tim CarterCamilla MathisonTiffany ShawKlaus Wyser
Ziming ChenKelly McCuskerElena ShevliakovaSha Yu
William CollinsMalte MeinshausenJana SillmannJie Zhang
Binod DawadiBhogendra MishraManmeet SinghTilo Ziehn
Bo DongVaishali NaikRobin Smith
Kris EbiCristiano Prestrelo de OliveiraZhenay Song
Jan FuglestvedtAdeyemi Oludapo OlusolaChristian Steger
Oliver GedenSylvie PareyRanjini Swaminathan
Mujtaba HassanHun ParkKaoru Tachiiri
Zeke HausfatherAnna PiraniMuhammed Naveed Tahir
Joseph Rubén Huanay PérezFangli QiaoKiyoshi Takahashi


Towards a new set of scenarios for CMIP7 An update from ScenarioMIP’s Reading meeting

In June, the first meeting of the ScenarioMIP project under CMIP7 was held in Reading, UK. This meeting formed the first step in a design process to select a new, limited set of model runs. After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee published a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. You can read the report here.

In this webinar, the ScenarioMIP chairs outlined the process for selecting scenarios and presented the first drafted elements of the proposal coming out of the Reading meeting. Video of the webinar is below.

ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Workshop

This workshop will bring together the re-established ScenarioMIP community with the key CMIP Task Teams and relevant MIPs to look at lessons learned from CMIP6/AR6, current scenario development progress, and the key questions and experimental design priorities towards CMIP7/AR7 generation scenarios.

Event report

After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee have written a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. The report has been published online, and can be accessed by following this link.

The ScenarioMIP co-chairs are happy to receive comments and suggestions for the ongoing process. Please submit feedback on the form:

Pre-workshop survey

The ScenarioMIP Co-chairs have put together a short survey requesting feedback from the community on scenarios and their selection criteria. Survey results may be discussed at the ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Workshop. Any responses received after Wednesday 14th June may not be considered at the workshop, but will be reviewed after.

You can view the survey in a new tab here.

ScenarioMIP FAQs

If you are having trouble viewing the Q&A below, open the forum in a new tab by following this link. Click the arrow icon to the left of each question to view the full response.

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