Co-leads: Paul Durack PCMDI/LLNL and Vaishali Naik, NOAA
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Climate forcings are key in defining exogenous drivers of ongoing climate change and variability. As such, they are an integral part of defining historical, future scenarios, and idealised model experiments. Up-to-date, accurate, and well-documented forcing datasets are needed to build confidence in model simulations, attribution of historical changes, and projections of future climate change. The Climate Forcings Task Team (TT) is focused on identifying, developing, documenting, and delivering an updated and expanded forcing dataset collection for CMIP7 and beyond.
Goals & Objectives
The TT aims to identify, update, and deliver the next generation forcings for current and future generations of Earth System models. To achieve its aim, the TT has focused on four specific goals, select each goal in the view below to see its related sub-goals. The TT coordinates closely with the various Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) to ensure consistency between the experimental design and the required forcings. In particular, there is close coordination with ScenarioMIP to ensure the harmonisation of forcing datasets between historical and future scenarios. The WCRP Lighthouse Activity Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC), Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and numerous national and regional projects are important stakeholders.
In addition to the forcing datasets required to complete the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) simulations for CMIP7, we welcome contributions of forcing datasets to meet the needs of community MIP experiments. We also welcome prototype or alternative datasets not currently included in the standard CMIP DECK forcing suite. The TT’s key focus is quantifying uncertainty in forcing datasets, so the collation of alternative datasets to sample uncertainty and spread is a team priority. For new datasets, contributors should be willing to provide dataset documentation and support modelling groups who plan to use these data to force the simulations. All contributed data should conform as closely as possible to standard CMIP data formats (NetCDF, CF-Conventions, for reference see the CMIP6 data attributes), and where possible, use common units that most closely align with existing datasets or CMIP model output. All contributed data will be published with public open access on the input4MIPs ESGF project. If you are interested in contributing a dataset, please get in touch with the CMIP IPO.
Forcing datasets availability
The Climate Forcings TT is working to update the following CMIP DECK forcing suite:
| Dataset | Forcing dataset | Status | Expected ESGF publication |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthropogenic short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) and CO2 emissions | In publication queue | September 2024 |
| 2 | Open biomass burning emissions | Data in preparation and final metadata checks | September 2024 |
| 3 | Land use | Data in preparation | September 2024 |
| 4 | Greenhouse gas historical concentrations | Preliminary dataset available | v0.3.0 (0001-01 to 2022-12) available |
| 5 | Stratospheric volcanic SO2 emissions and aerosol optical properties | Preliminary dataset available | v1.1.3 available (1750-01 to 2023-12) |
| 6 | Ozone concentrations | Depends on 1, 2, 4, 5 and 8 | ~January 2025; 3 months after dependent datasets |
| 7 | Nitrogen deposition | Depends on 1, 2, 4, 5 and 8 | ~January 2025; 3 months after dependent datasets |
| 8 | Solar | Preliminary dataset available | v4.3 (1850-01 to 2023-12) available |
| 9 | AMIP sea-surface temperature and sea-ice boundary forcing | Final v1 dataset available. v2 dataset awaiting HadISST v2.4 release | v1.1.9 (1870-01 to 2022-12) available |
| 10 | Aerosol optical properties/MACv2-SP | Depends on 1, test dataset being produced in the meantime | ~November 2024; Expected a month after dependent datasets |
Please check the table above for the availability of datasets or on input4MIPs ESGF Project. Once datasets become available, this website will be updated with the latest information, documentation, and download links. When available, the future CMIP7 version 1 data will be identified for modelling groups to begin their CMIP7 AR7 Fast Track simulations.
Community engagement
Please sign-up for the Forcings mailing list here to be notified of new data, updates, or documentation.
Feedback on the forcing datasets can be provided via GitHub. We are particularly interested to hear from you if you have tested the datasets in models or compared against datasets in past CMIP phases or other sources.
Publications
- First Forcings drop in session report and slides
- GMD Forcings special issue
- Zenodo WCRP-CMIP Community
Forcings Task Team Members and Stakeholders
TT members represent forcing dataset developers/providers and global Earth System Modellers that plan to contribute to CMIP7. The TT also includes stakeholders who are external data users and are involved in satellite projects for CMIP, the WCRP, or the broader community. These stakeholders provide feedback and connection points across a broad and growing climate research community.
The Task Team also collaborates with the Fresh Eyes on CMIP Forcings subgroup, with co-leads Camilla Mathison (Met Office) and Wandi Yu (LLNL). The Forcings subgroup is contributing to the testing and evaluation of the forcings datasets as they are made available online. Opportunities for engagement with the Fresh Eyes subgroup will be announced soon.
Members
| Member | Service | Forcing dataset/activity | Institution | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Durack (Co-lead) | 2022- | 9 | PCMDI/LLNL | USA |
| Vaishali Naik (Co-lead) | 2022- | Models | NOAA | USA |
| Thomas Aubry | 2023- | 5 | University of Exeter | UK |
| Louise Chini | 2022- | 3 | UMD | USA |
| John Fasullo | 2022- | Models | UCAR | USA |
| Stephanie Fiedler | 2023- | 10 | GEOMAR | Germany |
| Bernd Funke | 2022- | 8 | IAA | Spain |
| Heather Graven | 2022- | Observations | Imperial College, London | UK |
| Michaela Hegglin | 2022- | 6 | Forschungszentrum Jülich | Germany |
| Jarmo Kikstra | 2024- | Scenarios | IIASA/Imperial College London | Austria |
| Thibaut Lurton | 2022- | Models | IPSL | France |
| Claire Macintosh | 2022- | Data Applications | ESA | UK |
| Zebedee Nicholls | 2022- | 4 | Climate Resource/IIASA | Australia/Austria |
| David Plummer | 2022- | 6 | Environment Canada | Canada |
| Steven Smith | 2022- | 1 | PNNL | USA |
| Margreet van Marle | 2022- | 2 | Deltares | Netherlands |
| Tilo Ziehn | 2022- | Models | CSIRO | Australia |
Former members
| Keywan Riahi | Member; 2023-2024 | IIASA | Austria |
| Guido van der Werf | Member; Jul-Nov 2023 | Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam | Netherlands |
Stakeholders
| Stakeholder | Term | Forcing dataset/activity | Institution | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Hoesly | 2023 – | 1, CEDS | PNNL | USA |
| Mahesh Kovilakam | 2023 – | 5, SAGE3 | NASA | USA |
| Ken Mankoff | 2024 – | Anomalous freshwater forcing team | NASA-GISS | USA |
| Malte Meinshausen | 2023 – | 4, GHG/ScenarioMIP | University of Melbourne | Australia |
| Anja Schmidt | 2023 – | 5, Volcanics consortium | DLR/ LMU Munich | Germany |
| Doug Smith | 2023 – | LESFMIP/EPESC WG2 | Met Office/ WCRP EPESC | UK |
| Tim Stockdale | 2023 – | H2020 CONFESS | ECMWF | UK |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
If you are having difficulties viewing the FAQs, you can open them in a new tab here.
Activities and events
Forcings drop-in sessions
June 2023
On 7 June 2023, the first two Forcings drop-in sessions were held across two time-slots (05:00 UTC and 16:00 UTC) to support equitable global participation. These sessions were chaired by one of the CMIP Panel co-chairs John Dunne (GFDL/NOAA) or Helene Hewitt (Met Office) and led by the Forcings Task Team co-leads, Paul Durack (PCMDI/LLNL) and Vaishali Naik (GFDL/NOAA) with input from the wider Task Team membership.
In these sessions, participants were introduced to the Task Team members and stakeholders together with the core goals they are seeking to address. Further, feedback received in the recent Future CMIP Forcings Community Survey was outlined and how the task team is addressing issues raised here, to deliver to CMIP7 and tackle longer term scientific challenges, before opening the session for an interactive dialogue with participants.This has now been summarised in an event report published in the Zenodo WCRP-CMIP Community. Slides from the session can also be found in the Zenodo WCRP-CMIP Community, or can be accessed at this link.
Future drop-ins
Further community drop-in sessions are planned to keep the whole community informed on the timelines for the forcings datasets and future plans. Check back here soon for more detail on the next event.
Consultations
A number of consultations have been circulated to groups across the community to gather feedback from CMIP6 and feedback and concerns around CMIP7 forcings. Input to the Forcings Task Team was gathered in the following consultations:
- CMIP6 Community Survey (March 2022)
- Future CMIP Forcings community survey (March 2023)
- Modelling centres Fast Track Consultation (v2, February 2024)
Task Team member presentations
Members of the Task Team regularly present to share the work of the Task Team to the wider community. Below is a list (with linked slidedecks) of a selection of these presentations:
- CMIP7 UK Workshop (Michaela Hegglin, September 2023)
- Presentation to Fresh Eyes on CMIP Forcings subgroup (Paul Durack and Vaishali Naik, February 2024)
- ESM2025 (Vaishali Naik, May 2024)
Membership calls
Open call for members closed in October 2022 – call text available here.
