Strategic Ensemble Design

Co-leads: Ben Sanderson, CICERO and Isla Simpson, NCAR

This task team will focus on on ensemble design and interpretation to aid scoping of the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7).

Robust assessments of mitigation policy effectiveness, and of adaptation strategy in the face of climate change require a climate modelling strategy which represents a balance of state of art process understanding, tractability and utility on a policy timescale.

Challenge

Successive generations of CMIP have seen the project grow in scope – with increasing process-specific subprojects to better address specific scientific questions, while the political and societal landscape surrounding the wider topic of climate change have developed dramatically in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, questions remain on how to best sample and calibrate models in order to produce simulations which are relevant for assessment.

Aim & Objectives

The aim of this Task Team is to consider how future best strategy for CMIP should address those evolving societal demands which can be met only by process-resolving computational Earth System Modelling. It will consider how to better represent both detailed climate impact and mitigation processes, given expectations of computational (and human) capacity over the timescale of CMIP7.

Early objectives will be:

  1. Review existing CMIP6 core and satellite protocols. Identify critical linkages and evident knowledge gaps.
  2. Consider how ad-hoc model calibration and sampling strategies in CMIP could be improved to better inform projected impacts in multi-model distributions of future climate change.
  3. Review model development axes which could improve utility and added value of future CMIP-class models for climate assessment (emissions driven capacity, calibration frameworks, process representation, resolution, timescale of simulations), and assess urgency and scope for addressing issues in coming CMIP cycles.
  4. Consider revision of DECK protocol to provide better calibration targets (and tests) for simple climate model architectures and scenarios representing key policy-relevant climate system uncertainties in achieving the goals of the Paris agreement.
  5. Coordinate a workshop to showcase perspectives and multi-model analysis needs for CMIP7.

Members

Strategic Ensemble Design members

Ben Sanderson 2022- Co-lead CICERO Norway
Isla Simpson 2022- Co-lead NCAR USA
Ben Booth 2022- Member UK Met Office UK
Dong-Hyun Cha 2022- Member UNIST Republic of Korea
Matthew Gidden 2022- Member IIASA Austria
Michael Grose 2022- Member CSIRO Australia
Tomohiro Hajima 2022- Member JAMSTEC Japan
Andrew King 2022- Member University of Melbourne Australia
Nadine Mengis 2022- Member GEOMAR Germany
Swapna Panickal 2022- Member Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology India
Bjørn Samset 2022- Member CICERO Norway
Roland Séférian 2022- Member Météo France France
Chris Smith 2022- Member University of Leeds UK
Abigail Snyder 2022- Member PNNL USA
Christian Steger 2022- Member DWD Germany
Abigail Swann 2022- Member University of Washington USA

Stakeholders

DianaGergelClimate Finance/Industry
LukeMadausClimate Finance/Industry
Katarzyna (Kasia)TokarskaClimate Finance/Industry
AnnaHarperIAM/Scenarios/Policy
PierreRegnierIAM/Scenarios/Policy
Carl-FriedrichSchleussnerIAM/Scenarios/Policy
JensTerhaarIAM/Scenarios/Policy
Anne SophieDalozImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
RossDixonImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
TimHermansImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
DavidHuardImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
VincentHumphreyImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
BhogendraMishraImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
PPunyaImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
WimThieryImpacts/Adaptation/Climate Services
ChrisBrierleyModelling centre
BradyFersterModelling centre
MarcoRealeModelling centre
ReinhardSchiemannModelling centre
SungboShimModelling centre
NeilSwartModelling centre
ShutingYangModelling centre

Activities

Open call for members closed in October 2022 – call text available here.

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