Co-leads: Ben Sanderson, CICERO and Isla Simpson, NCAR
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This task team will focus on on ensemble design and interpretation to aid scoping of the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7).
Robust assessments of mitigation policy effectiveness, and of adaptation strategy in the face of climate change require a climate modelling strategy which represents a balance of state of art process understanding, tractability and utility on a policy timescale.
Challenge
Successive generations of CMIP have seen the project grow in scope – with increasing process-specific subprojects to better address specific scientific questions, while the political and societal landscape surrounding the wider topic of climate change have developed dramatically in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, questions remain on how to best sample and calibrate models in order to produce simulations which are relevant for assessment.
Aim & Objectives
The aim of this Task Team is to consider how future best strategy for CMIP should address those evolving societal demands which can be met only by process-resolving computational Earth System Modelling. It will consider how to better represent both detailed climate impact and mitigation processes, given expectations of computational (and human) capacity over the timescale of CMIP7.
Early objectives will be:
- Review existing CMIP6 core and satellite protocols. Identify critical linkages and evident knowledge gaps.
- Consider how ad-hoc model calibration and sampling strategies in CMIP could be improved to better inform projected impacts in multi-model distributions of future climate change.
- Review model development axes which could improve utility and added value of future CMIP-class models for climate assessment (emissions driven capacity, calibration frameworks, process representation, resolution, timescale of simulations), and assess urgency and scope for addressing issues in coming CMIP cycles.
- Consider revision of DECK protocol to provide better calibration targets (and tests) for simple climate model architectures and scenarios representing key policy-relevant climate system uncertainties in achieving the goals of the Paris agreement.
- Coordinate a workshop to showcase perspectives and multi-model analysis needs for CMIP7.
Members
Strategic Ensemble Design members
| Ben Sanderson | 2022- | Co-lead | CICERO | Norway |
| Isla Simpson | 2022- | Co-lead | NCAR | USA |
| Ben Booth | 2022- | Member | UK Met Office | UK |
| Dong-Hyun Cha | 2022- | Member | UNIST | Republic of Korea |
| Matthew Gidden | 2022- | Member | IIASA | Austria |
| Michael Grose | 2022- | Member | CSIRO | Australia |
| Tomohiro Hajima | 2022- | Member | JAMSTEC | Japan |
| Andrew King | 2022- | Member | University of Melbourne | Australia |
| Nadine Mengis | 2022- | Member | GEOMAR | Germany |
| Swapna Panickal | 2022- | Member | Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology | India |
| Bjørn Samset | 2022- | Member | CICERO | Norway |
| Roland Séférian | 2022- | Member | Météo France | France |
| Chris Smith | 2022- | Member | University of Leeds | UK |
| Abigail Snyder | 2022- | Member | PNNL | USA |
| Christian Steger | 2022- | Member | DWD | Germany |
| Abigail Swann | 2022- | Member | University of Washington | USA |
Stakeholders
| Diana | Gergel | Climate Finance/Industry |
| Luke | Madaus | Climate Finance/Industry |
| Katarzyna (Kasia) | Tokarska | Climate Finance/Industry |
| Anna | Harper | IAM/Scenarios/Policy |
| Pierre | Regnier | IAM/Scenarios/Policy |
| Carl-Friedrich | Schleussner | IAM/Scenarios/Policy |
| Jens | Terhaar | IAM/Scenarios/Policy |
| Anne Sophie | Daloz | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| Ross | Dixon | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| Tim | Hermans | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| David | Huard | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| Vincent | Humphrey | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| Bhogendra | Mishra | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| P | Punya | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| Wim | Thiery | Impacts/Adaptation/Climate Services |
| Chris | Brierley | Modelling centre |
| Brady | Ferster | Modelling centre |
| Marco | Reale | Modelling centre |
| Reinhard | Schiemann | Modelling centre |
| Sungbo | Shim | Modelling centre |
| Neil | Swart | Modelling centre |
| Shuting | Yang | Modelling centre |
Activities
Open call for members closed in October 2022 – call text available here.
