Aug 23, 2023

Towards a new set of scenarios for CMIP7: An update from ScenarioMIP’s Reading meeting

Aerial view of three wind turbines in the early morning fog at sunrise in the English countryside
7 industrial chimneys smoking at sunset, reflected in a river.

The ScenarioMIP co-chairs have announced a webinar to be held on 6th September.

ScenarioMIP

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use. The primary objectives of Scenario-MIP are to:

  1. Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.
  2. Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.
  3. Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.

ScenarioMIP is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project organised by the World Climate Research Programme, and integrates research across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), mitigation, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities.

ScenarioMIP is co-chaired by Brian O’Neill (JGCRI/PNNL), Claudia Tebaldi (JGCRI/PNNL), and Detlef van Vuuren (PBL).

Reading Workshop

On June 20-22, 2023, the first meeting of the ScenarioMIP project under the new phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP7, was held in Reading, UK. Participants were primarily members of scenario-related MIPs, including the ScenarioMIP Scientific Steering Committee, as well as relevant scientific experts identified by the MIPs, representatives of ESM modelling centres, and leadership of CMIP. 

After the conclusion of the meeting, the ScenarioMIP co-chairs Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, and Detlef van Vuuren, and the Scientific Steering Committee have written a workshop report. This report summarises the key outcomes of the discussions during the event and outlines some of the next steps in developing the ScenarioMIP protocol and its implementation. You can read the report here.

Webinar

The Reading Workshop formed the first step in a design process to select a new, limited set of model runs. In this webinar, the ScenarioMIP chairs will outline the process for selecting scenarios and present the first drafted elements of the proposal coming out of the Reading meeting.

The webinar will be held on 6th September 2023 at 12:00 UTC. For participants who are unable to join, you can request a copy of the recording on the event registration form.

For more information, and event registration see the event webpage.

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