Jens Terhaar Senior Scientist, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland

Title: Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960’s.

Abstract: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for global ocean carbon and heat uptake, and controls the climate around the North Atlantic. Despite its importance, quantifying the AMOC’s past changes and assessing its vulnerability to climate change remains highly uncertain. Understanding past AMOC changes has relied on proxies, most notably sea surface temperature anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we use 24 Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to demonstrate that these temperature anomalies cannot robustly reconstruct the AMOC. Instead, we find that air-sea heat flux anomalies north of any given latitude in the North Atlantic between 26.5°N and 50°N are tightly linked to the AMOC anomaly at that latitude on decadal and centennial timescales. On these timescales, air-sea heat flux anomalies are strongly linked to AMOC-driven northward heat flux anomalies through the conservation of energy. On annual timescales, however, air-sea heat flux anomalies are mostly altered by atmospheric variability and less by AMOC anomalies. Based on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products, the decadal averaged AMOC at latitudes between 26.5°N and 50°N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017 although substantial variability exists at all latitudes.

Muhamad Khoiru Zaki Assistant Professor, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Title: An assessment of historical and future meteorological droughts in the tropical rainforest of Borneo, Indonesia

Abstract: Drought is important for research because of its impact that propagates to various sectors, especially in tropical rainforest climates with peatland conditions such as East Kalimantan, Borneo Island, Indonesia. This paper using Mann-Kendall’s Test to determine rainfall and temperature trends and using SPI and SPEI to classify drought. The objectives of this study are (1) to know the condition of rainfall and temperature over historical and future period; (2) to know the severity and mapping of meteorological drought in the historical and future using SPI and SPEI indices. This study shows that climate change has affected the distribution of rainfall intensity in some areas of east Kalimantan. It also shows the area with the maximum temperature (29 – 33 DegC) will be increased in the future. Therefore, SPI noted that moderate drought occurred most severely in 2013 to historical and 2028 to future period. 

Amanda Imola Szabó Postdoctoral Researcher, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic

Title: CMIP6-Based Projections of Central European Heat Extreme Co-Occurrences under Plausible Global Warming Levels

Abstract: Even with full implementation of pledged climate policies, communities will continue to experience increasing climate extremes. These challenges vary regionally and include a wide range of weather hazards with growing frequency and impacts beyond the climate system’s natural variability. In many regions globally, including Central Europe, the signal is especially robust for heat extremes, such as warm days and warm nights. In this study, we examine the co-occurrence of both minimum- and maximum- temperature-related extremes in Central Europe using simulations from subsets of CMIP6 models selected for their robust performance over the region. Rather than focusing on specific emission scenarios, we analyse projections at different global warming levels, ranging from the outcomes expected under currently implemented policies to those associated with pledged climate targets. This approach enables us to assess how heat extremes may evolve under plausible warming levels, alongside the commonly studied 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds of the Paris Agreement, reflecting the range of likely future outcomes and underscoring the urgency of mitigation and adaptation efforts. The aim of this research is to provide insights that could support adaptation planning in Central Europe and help assess the value of CMIP6 simulations for understanding regional heat extremes. Potential measures include urban planning to limit heat accumulation, improved early warning systems, and strengthened healthcare preparedness to manage rising heat-related health risks.