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Streamlining model selection – a collaborative virtual workshop

5 February @ 19:00 22:00 GMT

Context and workshop objectives

An ongoing challenge for climate data users is the time taken between the global climate simulations and the provision of data relevant to end users. CMIP, together with colleagues in CORDEX, ISIMIP, ISMIP7, GlacierMIP and others, have identified the need for a collaborative effort to streamline this process. There are opportunities for progress through sharing of best practice, investigating the potential of shared selection criteria, improved communication and data infrastructures, and the development of community tools.

To progress towards this shared goal, the aims of this collaborative workshop are:

  • Identifying the issues/challenges in the current framework, both scientific and technical.
  • Developing shared understanding of model selection techniques/approaches used across the communities.
  • Determining if shared criteria for model selection is required and possible.
  • Establishing tangible structures to support improved communication between modelling centres and downstream activities.
  • Accelerate the process from the creation of global simulations to regional downscaling and impact modelling and finally, the provision of data to end users.
  • Determining the needs for and identifying pathways to developing and funding the scientific and technical frameworks required to deliver to users.
  • Realistically assessing whether achieving this within CMIP7 is feasible, or the focus should be on laying groundwork for a longer term plan.

Workshop programme

An overview programme can be found below with links to slidedecks included:

Time (UTC)Topic
19:00-19:05Welcome and housekeeping (CMIP IPO)
19:05-19:20Meeting objectives (Christian Steger, DWD)
19:20-19:35Setting the context
An example of challenges faced by users in the current framework (Sven Kotlarski, Meteo Swiss)
19:35-20:05Sharing examples of current best practice
EURO-CORDEX for CMIP6 (Stefan Sobolowski, University of Bergen)
CORDEX-Australasia CMIP6 for Australian national projections (Michael Grose, CSIRO)
Model selection for RCM downscaling in ISMIP6 (Céline Agosta, LSCE/IPSL)
The ISIMIP approach (Lisa Novak, PIK Potsdam)
20:05-20:35BREAKOUT GROUPS: Scientific challenges
BOG 1 & 2: Ensemble sub-selection: is a common criteria/minimum set of evaluation metrics/framework to serve all communities possible or desired?
BOG 3: What do model development innovations mean for model selection e.g., the CMIP7 focus on CO2 emission-driven simulation, increasing resolution and AI/ML?
BOG 4: Understanding, quantifying and communicating uncertainty
20:35-20:45BREAK: Time for a drink and stretch!
20:45-21:15BREAKOUT GROUPS: Other challenges
BOG 5: Constraints on the availability of the required GCM/ESM model data – timing, provision of all required data, including temporal frequencies and extensions
BOG 6: Sustained and supported infrastructure to store, deliver and provide user friendly platforms for analysis, framework for coordinated exchange between communities.
BOG 7: Speeding up the process from creation of the global simulations until data/information reaches the end user including potential role of community developed tools to support model evaluation and selection
BOG 8: Balancing competing needs – funding, politics and ensuring equity, and supporting training and capacity building in a global community effort
21:15-21:40Feedback from breakout groups
21:40-21:55What have we learned during the workshop and what are next steps?
Immediate actions required
Follow up workshop (virtual/in person)
Format of outcomes – commentary paper, whitepaper etc.
21:55-22:00Final comments and meeting close

Recording

Scientific organising committee

  • Christian Steger (DWD)
  • Sophie Nowicki (University at Buffalo)
  • Michael Grose (CSIRO Climate Science Centre)
  • Antony Payne (University of Liverpool)
  • Silvina Solman (University of Buenos Aires)
  • Katja Frieler (PIK)
  • Helene Hewitt (Met Office)
  • Eleanor O’Rourke (CMIP IPO)

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