This December, AGU26 returns to San Francisco with the theme “Where Science Connects”.

The abstract submission deadline is Wednesday 5 August 2026, 23:59 EDT/03:59 UTC. 

Instructions and abstract submissions

CMIP relevant sessions at AGU26

Earth System forcing: quantifying the roles and responses of natural and anthropogenic drivers (GC042)

Conveners: Paul Durack, Vaishali Naik.

Abstract: Earth system variability and change arise from shifts in atmospheric composition affecting top-of-atmosphere energy balance, land-use changes altering surface albedo, and changes in ocean surface temperature and sea ice, among other forced perturbations. These natural or anthropogenic drivers are termed climate forcing agents. This session highlights research quantifying uncertainties in the evolution and impacts of these agents using Earth System Models and observations. We invite contributions across forcing research, including development of historical and future forcing time series, idealized analyses, single- or multi-model frameworks, or observational methods assessing their influence on Earth system dynamics. We are especially interested in studies examining responses to next-generation (CMIP7) forcing datasets and comparing them with earlier CMIP phase datasets (CMIP6/CMIP6Plus). Submissions exploring interactions across Earth system components – ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface and subsurface, and biosphere – and providing evidence of coherent forced responses are encouraged.

Link to session on AGU website

Early results bearing on Phase7 science questions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (GC041)

Conveners: John Dunne, Robert Pincus, Forrest Hoffman.

Abstract: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) identified four topics on which coupled modeling offers opportunities for rapid progress: 1) Patterns of sea surface warming, 2) Changing extremes, 3) The Water-Carbon-Climate nexus, and 4) Points of no return/ratcheting. CMIP7 includes Diagnostic, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (DECK) and Assessment Fast Track experiments to address both these guiding science priorities and requirements of prediction and projection, attribution, characterization, and process understanding towards assessment of state-of-the-art Earth system models. We invite contributions across research using coupled Earth system modeling including representation of historical and future change, idealized analyses, single- or multi-model frameworks, and others. We are especially interested in studies examining responses using the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track. Submissions that explore interactions across multiple components of the Earth system ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface and subsurface, and biosphere and highlight novel insight into the coupled Earth system are highly encouraged.

Link to session on AGU website

Land-Atmosphere interactions under Land-Use and Land Cover Change: Insights from Satellite Remote Sensing, Earth System Models, and Data-Driven Approaches (GC077)

Conveners: Yue Li, Chi Chen, Xiaojing Tang, Guiling Wang.

Abstract: Land use and land cover change (LULCC) alter carbon, water, energy, and nutrient fluxes, shaping land–atmosphere interactions across scales. Understanding these dynamics is critical for designing effective natural climate solutions, fostering ecosystem stability, and preventing land system transitions towards potential tipping points. Despite advances in satellite remote sensing and Earth system modeling, uncertainties remain in the representation of LULCC processes, feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity. Improving process understanding and model fidelity requires closer integration of models and observations, enabled by expanding reanalysis datasets, upcoming CMIP7 simulations, and emerging AI/ML approaches. This session invites contributions advancing understanding and quantification of LULCC (e.g., de/reforestation, cropland expansion, irrigation) and associated biogeophysical feedback, including but not limited to:

• Hybrid physics–AI/ML approaches to modeling LULCC and its impacts
• Multiscale land–atmosphere coupling mechanisms during extreme events (e.g., heatwave, drought, extreme precipitation)
• Carbon-water-climate interactions
• Evaluation and attribution of ecosystem–climate feedbacks in CMIP models
• High-resolution modeling of LULCC impacts

Link to session on AGU website

Understanding and protecting ice sheet evolution and tipping dynamics for future sea level rise (C037)

Conveners: Sophie Nowicki, Robin Smith, Ricarda Winkelmann, Ann Kristin Klose, Maria Paz Lira.

Abstract: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets represent the largest sources of uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise at 2100 and beyond. This session focuses on recent progress in ice-sheet modeling and its implications for sea-level projections across a range of temporal and spatial scales. We invite contributions linked to international coordinated efforts, including the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ISMIP7) and the Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP). We encourage submissions that quantify and explore uncertainties in ice-sheet evolution, including those arising from model physics, parameterizations, initialization strategies and external forcing. We also seek contributions that examine coupled ice sheet climate interactions, including feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere, and their influence on ice-sheet stability and sea-level rise. Through this session, we aim to foster collaboration and advance a more robust, community-based understanding of ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

Link to session on AGU website

Polar Climate Change and Variability: Mechanisms and impacts in Observations and Models (A099)

Conveners: Yu-Chiao Liang, Lantao Sun, Yutian Wu, Qinghua Ding, Lily Hahn.

Abstract: Polar climate change and variability arise from complex interactions among Earth system components, and may have far-reaching impacts on lower-latitude weather extremes and global climate. This session aims to synthesize current understanding of the mechanisms and consequences of polar climate change and variability across a range of spatiotemporal scales. Contributions are invited that explore: (1) the roles of atmospheric, oceanic, sea-ice, land processes, along with local and remote forcings and feedbacks in shaping polar climate; (2) the influence of high-impact weather processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones) and internal variability on polar climate and its predictability; and (3) Arctic and Antarctic climate changes and their interactions with weather extremes and climate variability at lower-latitudes. Studies based on observations, theory, simulations across model hierarchies, and machine-learning approaches are encouraged. This session will provide insights for ongoing coordinated modeling efforts, including the CMIP7 and the next phase of Polar Amplification MIP.

Link to session on AGU website

Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations (GC032)

Conveners: Tiffany Shaw, Isla Simpson, Stephen Po-Chedley, Senne Van Loon.

Abstract: Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. The climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. We welcome contributions that take stock of the ability of models to capture recent trends across all Earth system components. Contributions highlighting successes and discrepancies, robust procedures for confronting observed and modeled trends, moving beyond quantification into understanding the origins of historical trends in the observational record and/or models, and cutting-edge methods (e.g. Machine Learning, kilometer scale models, hindcasts) for identifying sources of discrepancies and separating forced signals from internal variability are all welcome.

Link to session on AGU website

The global water cycle: coupling and exchanges of mass and energy between the ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere (GC117)

Conveners: Paul Durack, Jiafu Mao, John T Reager, Liafang Li, Marybeth Arcodia

Abstract: This session focuses on water cycle research from an Earth system perspective, emphasizing interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and subsurface. We invite contributions spanning in situ and satellite observations-from past (e.g., Aquarius, TRMM, GRACE), current (e.g., GO-SHIP, Argo, SMAP, SMOS, GRACE-FO, GPM, GCOM-W, SWOT, NISAR), and future (e.g., CIMR, MAGIC) missions-as well as numerical models, data assimilation products, climate projections, and theoretical studies. We especially encourage work that integrates multiple Earth system components to reveal coupled water cycle variability, long-term change, and underlying mechanisms. Regional and global assessments that identify key observational gaps, emerging priorities, and future needs for monitoring the changing water cycle are also welcome.

Link to session on AGU website